{"id":17592,"date":"2023-09-09T12:49:31","date_gmt":"2023-09-09T12:49:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sasquatchnewsonline.com\/?p=17592"},"modified":"2023-09-09T12:49:31","modified_gmt":"2023-09-09T12:49:31","slug":"dias-trent-maul-is-sending-a-message-on-behalf-of-joe-biden","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sasquatchnewsonline.com\/?p=17592","title":{"rendered":"DIA\u2019s Trent Maul Is Sending A Message On Behalf Of Joe Biden"},"content":{"rendered":"
\nImage AP\n

My Thursday article ridiculing the DIA\u2019s top dog for analysis, Dr. Trent Maul, for his banal comments about Ukraine\u2019s prospects for success was written with the assumption that he was interviewed by Newsweek. Boy, was I wrong. Maul\u2019s musings on Ukraine\u2019s \u201crealistic prospects\u201d of future success also appeared in The Economist and the U.K.\u2019s Telegraph. I cannot discern if he spoke to the three reporters (Economist, Newsweek and Telegraph) individually or as a group? Or, did he only speak to The Economist and the other two repeated parts of his interview and put their own spin on it?<\/p>\n

Regardless, this was not just some run-of-the-mill interview. Maul did not wake up Wednesday morning and declare, \u201cDamn, I feel like talking to a reporter today.\u201d He spoke to the press with the full blessing of his boss (the head of DIA) and probably General Milley and SecDef Lloyd Austin.<\/p>\n

The Economist piece is titled,\u00a0How the Pentagon assesses Ukraine\u2019s progress<\/a>. I want to highlight some key elements that were not published in the Newsweek piece:<\/p>\n

An annual DIA report, \u201cSoviet Military Power\u201d, was read avidly during the cold war. But intangibles are just as important. Mr Maul singles out the will to fight\u2014and candidly acknowledges that his agency got it wrong in Iraq in 2014 and Afghanistan in 2021, where American-built armies crumbled almost overnight. . . .<\/p>\n

That experience, along with the evaporation of the Iraqi army in the face of the Islamic State group, led DIA to \u201cover-correct\u201d when judging how Ukraine would fare when Russia invaded last year. \u201cWe had a similar thought that they were just overwhelmed on paper.\u201d It has proved a teachable moment. Mr Maul brandishes a 40-page \u201ctradecraft note\u201d, published this January, which re-examines how the agency measures a country\u2019s will to fight.<\/p>\n

I give Dr. Maul credit for one thing \u2014 he admitted that DIA got it wrong. At least he is consistent. Maul goes on describing DIA\u2019s \u201cmethodology\u201d notes that casualties, inadequate training and critical shortages in ammunition and other logistics will play a decisive role in whether or not Ukraine\u2019s army remains a viable force. Maul\u2019s explanation to the Economist correspondent is more nuanced than the rosy scenario painted by Ellie Cook in her Newsweek article.<\/p>\n

The Economist reporter also spoke to other American officials. One in particular deserves skewering:<\/p>\n

One Biden administration official says that Ukraine has around six to seven weeks of combat left before its offensive culminates.\u00a0. . . \u201cIf you look at the battlefield in five years\u2019 time, it could look broadly similar,\u201d says a senior American intelligence official, emphasising that the quality of both Russian and Ukrainian forces is declining over time.<\/p>\n

The ironically named \u201cintelligence official\u201d reveals gross ignorance about Russia and its capabilities. The Russian Army is stronger and larger today than it was 18 months ago. The Russian defense industry is operating at levels unheard of in 2022 and producing enormous volumes of drones, artillery shells, cruise missiles, tanks, vehicles and regular ammunition. None of that is true for Ukraine. Missing this kind of data point (or points) explains why you can have an intelligence failure. There is a built in assumption that Russia will be in stasis for the next 18 months. That ain\u2019t going to happen.<\/p>\n

The big take away for me from Maul\u2019s interview (or interviews) is that the Biden Administration completely discounts the possibility of a Russian battlefield victory and a Ukrainian collapse. If Ukraine does collapse (which I think is likely) we will witness Afghanistan II \u2014 which means the United States once again is caught unawares by a rapid deterioration and will scramble desperately to come up with a Plan B. By then it will be too late.<\/p>\n

I think the key variable that will determine the Russian military\u2019s course of action in the coming months in Ukraine is the status of Western ISR. As long as the U.S. and NATO continue to supply Ukraine with floods of ISR data, which means knowing roughly the location and size of Russian forces along the line of contact, I do not think Russia will launch any big movement offensives. A large scale maneuver offensive would require assembling a concentration of troops that would be easily spotted by ISR and then targeted for attack. As long as Western ISR remains intact Russia is opting to disperse forces and attrit the Ukrainians without employing World War I tactics of human wave assaults across open fields.<\/p>\n

Unless Russia can come up with a way to deceive Western ISR, it is unlikely to assemble a Division size element that could deliver a decisive blow in some sector of the line of contact. This is what distinguishes a Special Military Operation from a war footing. If Russia decides to attack Western ISR assets that will be a sure sign of a major, escalatory shift in the Russian military\u2019s plans and objectives.<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

READER<\/h2>\n

The post DIA\u2019s Trent Maul Is Sending A Message On Behalf Of Joe Biden<\/a> appeared first on The Gateway Pundit<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Image AP My Thursday article ridiculing the DIA\u2019s top dog for analysis, Dr. Trent Maul, for his banal<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-17592","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nDIA\u2019s Trent Maul Is Sending A Message On Behalf Of Joe Biden - Sasquatch News Online<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/sasquatchnewsonline.com\/?p=17592\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"DIA\u2019s Trent Maul Is Sending A Message On Behalf Of Joe Biden - 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