{"id":39955,"date":"2024-12-21T00:40:21","date_gmt":"2024-12-21T00:40:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sasquatchnewsonline.com\/?p=39955"},"modified":"2024-12-21T00:40:21","modified_gmt":"2024-12-21T00:40:21","slug":"too-little-too-late-by-biden-on-iran","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sasquatchnewsonline.com\/?p=39955","title":{"rendered":"Too Little, Too Late, By Biden on Iran"},"content":{"rendered":"

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\u00a0<\/p>\n

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Joe Biden<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

This story originally was published by Real Clear Wire<\/a><\/p>\n

By Janatan Sayeh<\/a> , Behnam Ben Taleblu<\/a> , Saeed Ghasseminejad<\/a>
\nReal Clear Wire<\/p>\n

President Biden pulled punches when enforcing oil sanctions against Iran. Forsaking the leverage inherited from President Trump\u2019s \u201cmaximum\u00a0pressure<\/a>,\u201d Biden opted for \u201cmaximum\u00a0deference<\/a>\u201d from the get-go, and with clearly disastrous results.<\/p>\n

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Not only is there no deal in place today constraining Iran\u2019s nuclear program, but Tehran\u2019s theocrats have used oil export revenues \u2013 an\u00a0estimated<\/a>\u00a0at $144 billion of which was earned during Biden\u2019s first three years \u2013 to underwrite the cycle violence currently engulfing the Middle East.<\/p>\n

While a recent sanctions package\u00a0targeting<\/a>\u00a0Iran\u2019s illicit oil sales and smuggling network earlier this December is welcome news, it is too little, too late, to salvage Biden\u2019s Iran policy.<\/p>\n

The latest\u00a0sanctions<\/a>\u00a0are far-reaching,\u00a0targeting<\/a>\u00a021 vessels operating under 10 different flags as well as 14 companies across 13 different countries. The penalties followed an earlier round of\u00a0designations<\/a>\u00a0aimed at both responding to Iran\u2019s October\u00a0ballistic missile barrage<\/a>\u00a0against Israel and\u00a0tightening<\/a>\u00a0crude oil and petrochemical sanctions. Both measures focused on the regime\u2019s so-called \u201cghost fleet<\/a>\u201d which engages in dangerous and deceptive practices on the high seas to get sanctioned Iranian commodities to buyers in Asia.<\/p>\n

Iran\u2019s use of \u201cghost fleets\u201d\u2014an expensive network of vessels masking their identities\u2014 has reportedly surged,\u00a0increasing<\/a>\u00a0fourfold between 2020 and 2023. These vessels employ evasive tactics such as disabling their transponders, repainting hulls, and changing flags. With its partner Russia facing mounting sanctions over its war against Ukraine, Tehran\u00a0extended<\/a>\u00a0its sanctions busting expertise to bail out Moscow. Both countries have\u00a0adopted<\/a>\u00a0shadow fleets, utilizing ship-to-ship transfers, blending oil, and using shell companies to obscure operations.<\/p>\n

Addressing the challenge posed by Iran\u2019s \u201cghost fleet\u201d and\u00a0illicit trade<\/a>\u00a0is crucial, but so too is developing a more comprehensive strategy to squeeze the regime\u2019s exports. Trump\u2019s maximum pressure policy reduced Iranian oil exports from\u00a02.9 million barrels<\/a>\u00a0per day in April 2018 to\u00a0around 400,000\u00a0 in 2020<\/a>.<\/p>\n

However, under the Biden administration, lenient sanctions enforcement\u00a0starting<\/a>\u00a0in mid-2022 enabled Iran\u2019s oil exports\u2014particularly to China\u2014to surge, with revenues swelling from $16 billion in 2020 to $53 billion by 2023,\u00a0according<\/a>\u00a0to data from the U.S. government\u2019s Energy Information Agency. These concession failed to induce Iran to negotiate in\u00a0good faith<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Worse, over the last four years, Iran has used funds generated through sanctions evasion to significantly advance its nuclear, missile, and regional military ambitions. It has\u00a0accumulated<\/a>\u00a0more 60 percent enriched uranium,\u00a0including<\/a>\u00a0at its subterranean Fordow facility. Continued amassment of 60 percent highly enriched uranium puts Tehran in the prime position to enrich to weapons grade, should it choose to do so.<\/p>\n

Simultaneously, Tehran has\u00a0evolved<\/a>\u00a0into a global arms salesman as well as proliferator, bolstering production lines for missiles and drones that have been deployed in various combat zones,\u00a0including<\/a>\u00a0Russia\u2019s war against Ukraine,\u00a0assaults<\/a>\u00a0on Israel, and conflicts in Ethiopia and Sudan. Iranian\u00a0anti-ship capabilities<\/a>\u00a0bolster Houthi attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea, and Iranian arms and financing have underwritten a\u00a0reported<\/a>181\u00a0attacks<\/a>\u00a0<\/u>by Shiite militias against U.S. positions in Iraq, Syria, and Jordan since October 2023.<\/p>\n

Politically however, the latest designations by the Biden administration can serve as a springboard to\u00a0intensifying maximum pressure<\/a>\u00a0on Iran by the incoming Trump administration. Just as green-lighting Ukraine\u2019s\u00a0use<\/a>\u00a0of long-range missiles like ATACMS against Russian territory\u00a0strengthens<\/a>\u00a0Trump\u2019s hand in negotiations with President Putin, these designations can lay the groundwork for a more coercive U.S. policy against Iran\u2019s nuclear program predicated on disarmament and rollback.<\/p>\n

To develop this leverage, Trump will need to continue targeting tankers and fully enforcing oil and petrochemical sanctions, but this action alone is insufficient to disrupt the illicit Iran-China\u00a0oil trade<\/a>, which\u00a0<\/u>features<\/a>\u00a0a growing Malaysian nexus.<\/u>\u00a0Equally important is the need to halt Iran\u2019s major non-oil\u00a0trade<\/a>\u00a0with countries like Turkey, Iraq, and the UAE, that play a significant role in Iran\u2019s economy.<\/p>\n

To that end, the industrial metals sector, which\u00a0accounts<\/a>\u00a0for 20% of Iran\u2019s non-oil exports and plays a significant role in bolstering the regime\u2019s military programs, will need to come under the sights of the incoming Trump administration. In its first term, the Trump administration\u00a0expanded sanctions<\/a>\u00a0against these sectors, and should now be grown to include metals like nickel and\u00a0lithium<\/a>, as well as zinc. China, Iraq, and Turkey are key destinations for these exports, and U.S. handholding and arm-twisting with these nations will be key to any effort to limit or end their imports.<\/p>\n

The outgoing Biden administration\u2019s reluctance has undeniably complicated restraining Tehran\u2019s nuclear ambitions and regional destabilization. Should the incoming Trump administration commit to reinstituting a maximum pressure strategy, a course correction would begin by enforcing existing penalties and strategic sectors enabling the Islamic Republic to generate revenues upon assuming office.<\/p>\n

\n

Janatan Sayeh<\/strong> is a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) in Washington DC, where Behnam Ben Taleblu<\/strong> is a senior director, and Saeed Ghasseminejad<\/strong>is a senior advisor. All three contribute to FDD\u2019s Iran program.<\/em><\/p>\n

This article was originally published by RealClearDefense and made available via RealClearWire.<\/strong><\/div>\n
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The post Too Little, Too Late, By Biden on Iran<\/a> appeared first on The Gateway Pundit<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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