{"id":54309,"date":"2025-09-20T23:43:02","date_gmt":"2025-09-20T23:43:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sasquatchnewsonline.com\/?p=54309"},"modified":"2025-09-20T23:43:02","modified_gmt":"2025-09-20T23:43:02","slug":"xi-jinpings-calculus-for-a-taiwan-invasion-based-on-13-factor-theory","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sasquatchnewsonline.com\/?p=54309","title":{"rendered":"Xi Jinping\u2019s Calculus for a Taiwan Invasion \u2013 Based on 13 Factor Theory"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Chinese and Lao troops after completing a comprehensive joint live-fire phase in a training ground in Laos on May 26, 2023. Photo: Screenshot from the WeChat account of the Chinese People\u2019s Liberation Army Southern Theater Command<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

For most analysts, the question of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan<\/a>, and a resulting war with the United States, is not if, but when. Dr. Gregory J. Moore, Professor of Government at Patrick Henry College and Senior Fellow at the National Institute for Deterrence Studies, presented an assessment<\/a> for the United States Air University in which he argued that Xi Jinping\u2019s decision on when to invade Taiwan and risk war with the U.S. depends on 13 critical factors, along with four additional enduring conditions.<\/p>\n

Based on Dr. Moore\u2019s analysis, Xi\u2019s calculus rests on 13 key factors: (1) the People\u2019s Liberation Army\u2019s<\/a> (PLA) level of military preparedness, (2) China\u2019s struggling economy, (3) Taiwan\u2019s identity drifting further from mainland China, (4) China\u2019s demographic decline, (5) the importance of Taiwan\u2019s semiconductor industry, (6) the growing importance of semiconductors to China amid technological isolation, (7) the expanding U.S. commitment to Taiwan, (8) the current lack of U.S.\u2013Taiwan joint exercises and interoperability, (9) China\u2019s present advantage in ship-killer hypersonic weapons, (10) U.S. efforts to develop hypersonic weapons and defenses, (11) the poor state of U.S.\u2013China relations, (12) Xi\u2019s perception of U.S. intentions as increasingly hostile, and (13) the 2024 victory of Taiwan\u2019s pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party.<\/p>\n

Of these 13 factors, 11 suggest that an invasion may be imminent, while only two argue for delay. Yet postponement would erode the advantages provided by the 11 factors already aligned in Beijing\u2019s favor. The two that point toward waiting are People\u2019s Liberation Army (PLA) military preparedness and China\u2019s struggling economy.<\/p>\n

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The PLA still has gaps in training<\/a>, logistics, and capability, and would benefit from more time to modernize. China\u2019s economy also faces mounting headwinds: disputed growth figures, a collapsing housing market, youth unemployment surpassing 21 percent, deflation driven by the trade war with the United States, slowing exports, and growing isolation as countries pursue \u201cde-risking\u201d and \u201cdecoupling\u201d strategies.<\/p>\n

The other 11 indicators favor earlier action. Taiwan\u2019s national identity continues to drift away from China, with surveys showing only 3.6 percent of Taiwanese identifying as Chinese by 2022, compared to 61 percent identifying exclusively as Taiwanese. China\u2019s demographic decline threatens future military recruitment, adding pressure to act before manpower shortages deepen.<\/p>\n

Taiwan\u2019s dominance in advanced semiconductors, largely through TSMC, remains an attractive prize, but one that may diminish as production diversifies to Arizona, Germany, and Japan. With U.S. export controls tightening, Beijing\u2019s isolation from advanced chips makes Taiwan\u2019s fabs even more valuable now.<\/p>\n

Military dynamics further tilt the balance. China currently holds an advantage in ship-killer and hypersonic weapons, particularly the DF-17 system, while the U.S. lacks reliable countermeasures. This edge, however, will not last, as Washington accelerates development of its own hypersonic weapons and defenses.<\/p>\n

U.S. commitment to Taiwan has also grown steadily through arms sales, military aid, and stronger political backing, and will likely only deepen with time. At present, Taiwan and the U.S. lack the kind of joint exercises and interoperability enjoyed with treaty allies like Japan or South Korea, but that gap will close if Xi delays.<\/p>\n

Diplomatic and political factors also press Xi toward action. U.S.\u2013China relations are already at a low point, reducing the cost of further deterioration. Xi himself has described American strategy as \u201ccomprehensive containment, encirclement and suppression,\u201d reinforcing his perception of U.S. hostility and his belief that Washington will increasingly use Taiwan as a tool to weaken China.<\/p>\n

Finally, Taiwan\u2019s 2024 election, which handed victory to the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party, eliminated hopes for warmer cross-strait ties and reinforced Taiwan\u2019s trajectory away from Beijing.<\/p>\n

Beyond these dashboard indicators, Moore identifies four enduring conditions that amplify the urgency. First, the CCP\u2019s \u201csacred commitment\u201d to Taiwan anchors Beijing\u2019s ideology of territorial integrity and national identity. Second, authoritarian decision-making creates distortions, as Xi may not receive honest assessments of PLA readiness due to military purges and a culture of fear.<\/p>\n

Third, Xi\u2019s personal political incentives drive urgency: reclaiming Taiwan would cement his legacy and strengthen his position at the 2027 Party Congress, where his fourth term will be decided. Finally, Xi\u2019s directive that the PLA be ready by 2027, confirmed publicly by CIA Director William Burns, sets a hard timeline for preparation.<\/p>\n

Moore concludes that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan within one to three years, likely before the October 2027 Party Congress, must be treated as a plausible scenario. While military preparedness favors delay, the weight of the other indicators, and the distortions of authoritarian decision-making, make earlier action increasingly likely. Ignoring these realities risks leaving the United States and its allies unprepared for what may become the most volatile flashpoint in U.S. foreign policy.<\/p>\n

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The post Xi Jinping\u2019s Calculus for a Taiwan Invasion \u2013 Based on 13 Factor Theory<\/a> appeared first on The Gateway Pundit<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Chinese and Lao troops after completing a comprehensive joint live-fire phase in a training ground in Laos on<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-54309","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nXi Jinping\u2019s Calculus for a Taiwan Invasion \u2013 Based on 13 Factor Theory - Sasquatch News Online<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/sasquatchnewsonline.com\/?p=54309\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Xi Jinping\u2019s Calculus for a Taiwan Invasion \u2013 Based on 13 Factor Theory - 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